⚽ Model Explanation: World Cup Prediction Probability Calculation Logic
Important note: The 2026 World Cup has not started yet. The following model explanation is for reference only.
📊 Core Model Architecture
1. ELO Rating System
Dynamically adjusts ratings based on historical results, opponent strength, and match importance. Weight: 40%.
2. Team Form Factor
Last 5 matches win rate, goals scored, goals conceded, shot conversion rate. Weight: 25%.
3. Injuries & Squad Depth
Impact coefficient of key player absences, substitute strength assessment. Weight: 15%.
4. Head-to-Head Record
Results of last 10 meetings in same-level competitions. Weight: 10%.
5. Schedule & Venue Factors
Rest day difference, home/away or neutral venue, climate adaptability. Weight: 10%.
🔢 Probability Calculation Logic
Win/Draw/Loss Probability = Σ(Factor Score × Weight) + Market Odds Calibration Coefficient
Final output probabilities sum to 100%, validated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Example: France vs Netherlands
ELO difference: +85 → Win probability +12%
Form factor: France 4 wins in last 5 → Win probability +8%
Injuries: France key player absent → Win probability -5%
Final output: Win 48% Draw 27% Loss 25%
⚠️ Responsible Betting Guide (18+)
1. Set a budget, never exceed it
2. Refuse to chase losses
3. No borrowing for betting
4. Stay sober, don't bet after drinking
5. Betting is not a way to make money
6. Watch for warning signs
7. Seek help when needed
⚡ This page does not constitute betting advice. Under 18 prohibited from betting. Watch responsibly.